Handpicked Software

Is (as Chris Seibold speculates on Apple Matters) Apple Preparing for a Microsoft Free Future? It’s an interesting question, and I think the answer is yes…and no. Here’s why…

Seibold mentions a rumor that Apple went with NeXT instead of BeOS because Microsoft refused to develop a version of Office for Apple that would run on BeOS. I don’t know anything about that, but I have a suspicion that Apple had an agreement with Microsoft not to develop a competing office suite if Microsoft would support Apple during the vulnerable transition to OS X. How else to explain the absence of an AppleWorks replacement almost four years after OS X’s release (iWork hardly qualifies; lacking, as it does, spreadsheet, database, and graphics programs)? Microsoft would not have been enthusiastic about sharing the stage at Macworld keynotes with an Apple office suite.

We shouldn’t underestimate Microsoft’s commitment to Apple. As far as I know, Microsoft still has a significant financial stake in Apple. Microsoft, as you may recall, invested $150 million in Apple (the announcement by Steve Jobs was met with the same hand-wringing by Mac loyalists that greeted the Apple-Intel announcement). That $150 million investment is now easily worth over $1 billion. Sure, that doesn’t mean very much to a company with a market cap of some $270 billion, give or take. But a billion here, a billion there…

I don’t think Microsoft is in any hurry to abandon the Mac. And I don’t think most office users are in any hurry to abandon Microsoft Office. They may not have any love for it, but for those that are less than fond of it, Microsoft Office is a necessary evil. I know, because I have to contend with it almost every day. I have iWork, but I never use it. As a management consultant, I use PowerPoint regularly. I’m not going to hassle with trying to translate from PowerPoint to Keynote all of the presentations I have to share with colleagues (I’ve tried, and it’s not that easy; besides, I still use an old Sony VAIO when I’m on the road). When I’m writing for Macworld, I have to use Word so I can track changes, something that Pages isn’t likely to be able to do any time soon.

iWork is not a likely replacement for professional users. A more plausible alternative would be something like OpenOffice or NeoOffice/J. But who wants to run OpenOffice under X11, or an office suite that uses Java (I’ve tried NeoOffice/J; it sucks less than I thought it would, but it’s slow)? These are great alternatives if you don’t want to spend any money (both are free). But I have to think there’s a productivity cost that makes the investment in Microsoft Office worth the price.

So, I think Microsoft Office is here on the Mac to stay, at least for the foreseeable future. But that’s doesn’t mean Apple won’t aggressively go after Microsoft Office’s market. I think iWork will evolve into a Microsoft Office contender for all but corporate and professional users (i.e., those that have to work with corporate types). There are plenty of people who don’t need everything that Microsoft Office offers who have been inclined to buy it because their was no good alternative on the Mac.

I think iWork will add Numbers, or something like it, and will evolve into an office suite. It will happen sooner, rather than later (say, by next January’s Macworld keynote). It will come pre-installed on your new Mactel computer. It will give home users, small businesses, and freelancers another reason to switch from Windows to the Mac. Hardcore Office users will have the option of running Microsoft Office under Windows on their Mactel computer. They won’t need Virtual PC (with any luck, that is one product that will be a casualty of the move to Mactel). Instead, Windows applications will run under OS X without any Windows installation at all using Wine, or something like it, or something from Transitive (the same company responsible for Rosetta, which allows you to run your current OS X applications on Mactel).

Oh, and somewhere in the not too distant future, I think all of this becomes moot and everything moves to XML. When file compatibility is no longer an issue, it becomes a wide open playing field. And then there will be no reason to have anything with a Microsoft logo on your Mac.